The Balloon Seller meter

You are in a street which has three food joints. Two of them have balloon sellers in front of them, one doesn’t. Which one do you think is most popular with children? The ones with the balloon sellers right? Yes and No. Yes, that is the right answer, given these sellers stand here everyday, out of their own choice, there is no margin play between stores and balloon sellers and they are not in a contract with either store.

The balloon Seller Meter is a sign that so obviously tells you something very significant. Just like a regular independent balloon seller in front of a food joint tells you that the joint is frequented by children.

These signs are conclusive proofs by themselves because of a causal relationship and are followed by supporting observations which point to the same. And yet they are such petty everyday signs that they get lost in the background.

If we could have balloon seller meters for all our decisions, it would make life so much easier. The trick is to spot them. We can, given that we understand the one rule that governs the balloon seller meter; the relationship has to be causal or as close as possible.

You might not have a causal relationship for everything, in which case, you will have to look at the next best thing. To qoute from a talk I attended yesterday, a guy walks into your shop looking for a mercedes. Will he buy it? What watch is he wearing? Is it a Rolex? He just might.